Tesla is heading into its Q3 2025 production and deliveries (P&D) report with Wall Street expecting results in the 448,000–456,000 range, according to consensus tallies. Some analysts are even more bullish, pointing to the mid-460,000s on signs of strong demand in China and momentum from the new Model Y L launch.

The official report is typically published in the first couple of days of a new quarter, most recently on April 2 (Q1) and July 2 (Q2). This makes an October 1–2 release window the most likely, with several outlets flagging a potential Wednesday/Thursday drop before U.S. markets open.

Q3 Projections Snapshot

• Consensus estimate: ~448,000 units (FactSet)
• Bullish scenarios: Mid-460,000s, tied to China strength and Model Y L
• UBS view: Production at ~470,000 units, leaving room for modest inventory rebuild
• Comparisons:
  • Q1 2025 – 336,681 deliveries
  • Q2 2025 – 384,122 deliveries

Any Q3 print above the high-440s would represent a meaningful sequential jump heading into the critical holiday quarter.

China Signals and Model Y L Impact

Tesla’s China operations closed Q3 with their strongest weekly registration numbers of the quarter, about 19,300 units. Within that figure, the new six-seat Model Y L accounted for roughly 4,000 registrations (20% of the week’s total).

The Model Y L’s mix contribution highlights early traction, with local order channels showing delivery slots pushing into November for fresh orders. This backlog signals that momentum from the new variant will likely extend into Q4 2025.

Key Metrics to Watch in the Report

• Vehicle Mix – The breakdown between Model 3/Y and “other models” will indicate how much the new Model Y L boosted volumes versus Tesla’s premium lineup.
• Production vs. Deliveries – If production approaches ~470k but deliveries remain closer to consensus, analysts will focus on inventory flow and shipping timing heading into Q4.
• U.S. Demand Trends – Some previews point to late-quarter sales pull-forwards tied to EV incentive timing, which could complicate demand sustainability analysis.
• Software and FSD v14 – While deliveries are the main catalyst, Tesla’s progress on Full Self-Driving (FSD) is expected to feature prominently in discussions this quarter.

https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-second-quarter-2025-production-deliveries-deployments

Release Timing Expectations

Tesla’s Investor Relations press page is the canonical source for P&D data. Based on history:

• Q1 2025 P&D posted April 2
• Q2 2025 P&D posted July 2

This cadence makes October 1–2, 2025 the most probable release window. The update typically appears on Tesla’s IR press portal and “Press Releases” section in real time.

Context from Recent Quarters

• Q2 2025: 384,122 deliveries vs. ~410,000 produced, highlighted a production-delivery gap.
• Q1 2025: 336,681 deliveries, constrained by Model Y line transitions.

Tesla has repeatedly noted that deliveries alone don’t capture financial performance, average selling prices (ASPs), cost structure, and foreign exchange all play a role, with the earnings call later this month set to provide the full picture.